ارزیابی اثر تغییراقلیم و سیاست های اجرایی بر آسیب پذیری سیستم منابع آب

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب،دانشکده کشاورزی،دانشگاه ارومیه،ارومیه،ایران

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی،دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

حوضه زرینه‌رود نقش قابل توجهی در تامین آب دریاچه ارومیه، نیاز شرب و کشاورزی منطقه دارد. توسعه کشاورزی، انتقال آب این حوضه به خارج از آن و تغییراقلیم باعث کاهش جریان به داخل دریاچه ارومیه گردیده است. در این تحقیق بمنظور بررسی تاثیر همزمان تغییر اقلیم و سیاست‌گذاری‌های مدیران بر موجودیت منابع آب حوضه زرینه‌رود، ابتدا با استفاده از مدل AOGCM و مدل‌ ریزمقیاس‌نمایی SDSM و سناریو-های انتشار A2 و B2، داده‌های دما و بارندگی برای سال‌های 2070 تا 2084 تولید و سپس با استفاده از مدل SWAT، آورد حوضه محاسبه -گردید. نتایج حاکی از افزایش متوسط حداکثر دما به مقدار 29/6 و 27/5 درجه سانتی‌گراد و کاهش متوسط دبی سالانه ورودی به دریاچه تا 640 و 741 میلیون مترمکعب برای سناریوهای A2 و B2 بود. در مرحله بعد، مدل جامع پویای سیستم حوضه زرینه‌رود با در نظر گرفتن مجموعه عوامل موثر بر آن تدوین و پس از صحت‌سنجی و کالیبره مدل تاثیر پسخورها بر منابع آب مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج بیانگر وجود تقابلی بین بخش کشاورزی و نیاز زیست‌محیطی دریاچه ارومیه می‌باشد که افزایش تولیدات و سطوح کشاورزی باعث کاهش ورود جریان به دریاچه ارومیه خواهد گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of the impact of climate change and implementing policies on water supply vulnerabilities

نویسندگان [English]

  • ghasem ghasemfalaki 1
  • Hojjat Ahmadi 2
  • behzad hesari 3
1 Water Engineering Department, Agriculture Faculty, Urmieh University,Urmieh,Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering , Faculty of Agriculture, Urmia University., Urmia., Iran
3 Water engineering department, agriculture facility,urmia university, urmia, iran
چکیده [English]

Zarrineh Roud basin plays an important role in supplying water to Lake Urmia and the region's drinking and agricultural needs. Agricultural development, water transfer outside the basin and climate change have reduced the flow into Lake Urmia. In this study, we investigate the simultaneous impact of climate change and managers' s policies on the availability of water resources in the Zarrineh Roud basin. For this purpose, first using AOGCM model and SDSM downscaling model and considering two A2 and B2 emission scenarios, the minimum temperature, maximum and rainfall data for 2070 to 2084 are reduced and then basin's charge was calculated by using SWAT model. The results showed an average increased in water and temperature stress to 6/29 and 5/27 Centigrade degree and an average decrease in annual discharge into the lake under A2 and B2 emission scenarios. In the next step, a comprehensive dynamic system model of the zarrineh Roud basin was developed by taking into account the set of factors affecting it, and the impact of inland and out of case study basin on water resources was investigated after validation and calibration of model. The results indicate a conflict between the agricultural sector and the environmental need of Lake Urmia that increased production and agricultural levels would reduce the inflow into Lake Urmia.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Statistical downscaling model (SDSM)
  • SWAT
  • Dynamics System
  • ZarinehRoud Basin

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نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران
دوره 14، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 81
مرداد و شهریور 1399
صفحه 881-893

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