نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 کارشناسی ارشد اکوهیدرولوژی، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
2 استادیار گروه انرژیهای نو و محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین، دانشگاه تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
It is necessary the (GCMs) act on the local behavior of the station data, to understand the status of a local station using these models. In this study using SDSM, LARS_WG models and artificial neural network method Based on observational data obtained from 6 synoptic stations in Isfahan province, temperature and precipitation forecasts of these stations from 2005 to 2050 have been investigated. Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) and coefficient of determination (R2) between observational data and scenario data at all stations are above 0.6.The results show that the SDSM model is more efficient for predicting temperature than the other two models. Based on the results, the temperature of Isfahan province increased from 2005 to 2050 and In 2005 it had the lowest value and in 2050 it had the highest value and the temperature difference of these years is about 2/3°C, Precipitation changes are almost similar to current changes and we will have the highest amount of precipitation in 2024 and 2028 which, in daran statian which, it has more rainfall than other stations, it will be about 2/5 mm, therefore, Isfahan province needs appropriate management strategies to reduce water consumption to prevent the possibility of dehydration and drought in the years ahead.