Uncertainty Assessment of Pollution Transport Model Using GLUE Method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Phd Student of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan., Zahedan., Iran

2 Assistant Professor. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan., Zahedan., Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Birjand., Birjand., Iran

4 Assistant Professor. Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand., Birjand., Iran

Abstract

In shallow river, regardless of the vertical acceleration against gravity acceleration, great simplifying will be created in equations that the result of them are shallow water equations. In this study shallow water equation has been used to simulate transport of pollution in 2D limited volumes method. In this method it is possible to turn differential equations ruling fluid to be solved in numerical form. To achieve better results in estimating pollution concentration in the river and Reliable range, the pollution Transformation Model uncertainty analysis prepared were examined. To uncertainty assessment in this study 5000 times repetition of uncertainty 3 calibration parameter of pollution transferring model by the use of uncertainty algorithm GLUE had happened in river. For this matter of  pollution Transformation Problem breaking a dam was used.  By applying acceptability threshold indicator of total average cubes (SSE) on all the obtained simulations, 1000 top simulations were known as efficient simulations. Considering about 95 percent confidence as high and low bound of uncertainty, and by applying used d-factor and p-factor indicators, 68 and 75 respectively were obtained Which reflects the high level of concentration was observed in 95 percent confidence. Results had showed using GLUE method caused reduction of uncertainty pollution transferring model parameters. Extraction probabilistical charts last corresponding parameter distributed with efficient simulation, parameter (n) as a sensitive and effective parameter on simulation models. And the optimal value obtained for this parameter 0/2477.

Keywords

References

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Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage
Volume 10, Issue 3 - Serial Number 57
July and August 2016
Pages 284-293

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