تحلیل اثرات تقویم کشت بر نیاز آبی گندم در استان سیستان و بلوچستان در شرایط تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته‌ی کارشناسی ارشد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

چکیده

افزایش گرمایش جهانی یکی از مهم­ترین مخاطرات طبیعی در جهان امروز است که با تاثیر بر فیزیولوژی گیاه، توازن آب خاک و تامین نیاز آبی از آبِ سبز و آبی می­تواند عملکرد گیاه را متأثر سازد. تحت چنین شرایطی، دست­یابی به امنیت آب و غذا نیازمند استفاده­ی بهینه از منابع آب موجود و حفظ عملکرد گیاه در دوره­های آتی می­باشد. از آن­جایی که گندم و فرآورده­های آن مهم­ترین سهم را در رژیم غذایی مردم جهان دارد، در این پژوهش تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تقویم کشت گندم و نیاز آبی آن در استان سیستان و بلوچستان مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. هم­چنین تاثیر مدیریت در تاریخ کاشت بر کاهش اثرات منفی این پدیده­ی جهانی بررسی شد. پس از واسنجی و صحت­سنجی مدل LARS-WG، مولفه­های اقلیمی شش ایستگاه هواشناسی زابل، زاهدان، ایرانشهر، سراوان، خاش و چابهار تحت سه سناریوی A1B، A2 و B1 در مدل HADCM3 تا سال 2100 ریزمقیاس شدند. با تعیین بازه‌های مناسب برای کاشت وطول دوره­های رشد اولیه، سریع، میانی و انتهایی با استفاده دماهای کاردینال و ضریب درجه-روز رشد، نیاز آبی گیاه بدست آمد. تغییر اقلیم به دلیل افزایش معنی­دار دما، طول دوره­ی رشد در مراحل مختلف را بین یک تا 20 روز کاهش می­دهد که این مساله باعث کاهش نیاز آبی گندم بین 03/0-7/42 درصد خواهد شد. اگرچه به تعویق انداختن زمان کاشت در شرایطِ تغییراقلیم، طول فصل کشت را بین 12 تا 25 روز کاهش می­دهد، اما نیاز آبی را بین 27/1 تا 778 مترمکعب در هکتار افزایش خواهد داد. براساس نتایج، مدیریت تقویم کشت گندم راه­کاری موثر برای دستیابی به کشاورزی پایدار در اقلیم آینده­ استان سیستان و بلوچستان می­باشد. 

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Influences of Cropping Calendar on Wheat Water Requirement in Sistan and Baluchestan Province under Climate Change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Jahantigh 1
  • Fatemeh Karandish 2
  • Masoumeh Delbari 3
1 MSc Student, Water Engineering Department, University of Zabol., Zabol., Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, University of Zabol., Zabol., Iran
3 Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, University of Zabol., Zabol., Iran
چکیده [English]

Global warming is a one of the most important natural hazard in the current world which could affect crop yields through affecting plant physiology, soil water balance and crop water requirement via green and blue water. Under such circumstances, achieving water and food security through an optimal usage of water resources and maintaining crop yield level requires measures for adapting with this major environmental challenge in the future periods. Since wheat and its produces has a the most important share in peoples’ food diet, the climate change effect on wheat cropping calendar and its water requirement in Sistan and Baluchestan province was investigated in this research. Also, the influence of managing sowing date on diminishing the negative effects of this global event was assessed. After calibrating and validating LARS-WG, the climatic variables in six synoptic stations of Zabol, Zahedan, Iranshahr, Saravan, Khash and Chabahar were downscaled under three scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1 of HADCAM3 model up to 2100. Crop water requirement was calculated by determining suitable crop cultivation periods based on cardinal temperature and determining the length of initial, developing, mid-season and late-season stages based of growth degree day coefficient. Climate change decrease the length of different growth stages by 1-20 days due to significant temperature increase which led to 0.03-42.7 percentage decrease in wheat water requirement. Although delaying wheat cultivation will intensify the climate change effects and shorten the growing period by 12-25 days, water requirement will increase by 1.27-778 M3 ha-1. Based on the results, the management ofwheat cultivation calendar can be effective way to achieve sustainable agriculture under future climate condition of the Sistan and Baluchestan province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cropping calendar
  • Global warming
  • HadCM3
  • LARS-WG model
  • Sustainable agriculture
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