بررسی تغییرات 30 ساله دبی جریان رودخانه‌های حوضه دریاچه ارومیه

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 باشگاه پژوهشگران جوان و نخبگان، واحد ارومیه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ارومیه، ایران

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

تغییر در میزان و رژیم بارندگی از جمله مظاهر قابل توجه تغییرات اقلیمی است. کاهش یا افزایش میزان بارندگی بر بسـیاری دیگـر از پدیـده­هـای اقلیمـی و محیطـی ماننـد روانـاب، سیلاب، دمای هوا، رطوبت هوا و همچنین بر بسیاری از فعالیت­های بشری مانند کشاورزی، اقتصاد، مبارزه با فرسایش خاک و غیره اثر دارد. بنابراین بررسی روند تغییرات زمانی بارش و دبی جریان در برنامه­ریزی و طراحی دقیق­تر پروژه­های آبی در آینده از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار می­باشد. در این مطالعه روند تغییرات دبی جریان رودخانه­های حوضه دریاچه ارومیه در دو مقیاس سالانه و ماهانه با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتری من- کندال اصلاح شده (MMK) با حذف کامل ساختار خودهمبستگی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به این منظور 25 ایستگاه هیدرومتری در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه در دوره آماری 1392-1363 مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. همچنین به منظور تعیین زمان تغییر روند سری زمانی دبی جریان از آزمون ناپارامتری پتیت استفاده شد. نتایج بررسی روند تغییرات دبی ایستگاه­های مورد مطالعه در سطح حوضه دریاچه ارومیه نشان داد که روند تغییرات دبی در اکثر ماه­ها کاهشی می­باشد. در مقیاس سالانه نیز در تمامی ایستگاه­ها روند کاهشی جریان در سطح حوضه مشهود بود. هم­چنین روند کاهشی دبی جریان در دو فصل پاییز و زمستان شدیدتر می­باشد. زمان تغییر روند کاهشی دبی جریان رودخانه­های حوضه دریاچه ارومیه نیز در بین سال­های 1373 تا 1377 اتفاق افتاده است. با بررسی زمان تغییر روند داده­های تراز سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه و دبی ایستگاه­های هیدرومتری حوضه آن مشخص گردید که کاهش تراز آب دریاچه ارومیه یک سال بعد از شکست کاهشی در داده­های دبی رخ داده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of 30 Years changing of River Flow Discharges in Urmia Lake Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Nazeri-Tahroudi 1
  • farshad Ahmadi 1
  • keivan khalili 2
1 Young Researchers and Elite Club, Urmia Branch, Islamic Azad University, Urmia, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural, Urmia University. Iran
چکیده [English]

Changes in the amount and distribution of flow discharge are a remarkable manifestation of climate change. Reducing or increasing the amount of flow discharge affects many other climatic and environmental phenomena such as runoff, flood, humidity and also affect many human activities such as agriculture, economics, the fight against soil erosion and so on. In this study, the trend of river flow discharge in the Urmia lake basin was investigated in two annual and monthly scales using modified non-parametric Mann-Kendall test (MMK) with complete removal of the self-correlation structure. In this study, 26 hydrometric stations were surveyed in the Urmia Lake basin during the statistical period of 1984-1984. Also, a non-parametric Pettett test was used to determine the time of change in flow trend. The results of the study of the trend of the studied stations at the Urmia lake basin showed that the course of the changes in the flow of water is decreasing in most months. On a yearly scale, at all stations, there was a trend of decreasing flow at the basin level. Also, the trend of flow discharge decline is more intense in both autumn and winter. The time of change in the decreasing trend of the flow discharge in the Urmia Lake basin was also taking place between 1994 and 1998. With evaluation the time of changing in the trend of the Urmia Lake water level and its hydrometric stations found that the decreasing trend of Urmia Lake water level data occurred one year after the decreasing trend in flow data.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Modified Kendall
  • Pettitt Test.Trend
  • Urmia Lake
 

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