شبیه‌سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از مدل‌های گزارش ارزیابی پنجم تحت سناریوهای RCP بر منابع آبی حوضه‌ی آبریز سد سلمان فارسی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد،‌ایران

2 علوم ومهندسی آب- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد- مشهد - ایران

3 علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

4 مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

این مطالعه با هدف ارزیابی اثرات بالقوه‌ی تغییر اقلیم بر منابع آبی حوضه‌ی آبریز سد سلمان فارسی با استفاده از ابزار ارزیابی آب و خاک(SWAT) انجام شد. داده‌های اقلیمی از سه مدل گردش عمومی GCM تحت دو سناریوی RCP2.6 و RCP8.5‌ در دوره‌ی زمانی آینده (2050-2020(‌ بعد از واسنجی مدل SWAT به آن وارد و تغییرات رواناب، آب آبی، جریان آب سبز و ذخیره‌ی آب سبز شبیه‌سازی شد و سپس با دوره‌ی پایه‌ی (2008-1978) مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. کارآیی مدل در شبیه‌سازی پاسخ هیدرولوژیکی حوضه توسط معیار‌های ارزیابی عملکرد مدل در ایستگاه آب‌سنجی تنگ‌کارزین به عنوان خروجی حوضه، در دوره‌ی واسنجی (مقادیر NSE و R2‌ به‌ترتیب برابر 0.77 و 0.80) و صحت‌سنجی (مقادیر NSE و R2‌ به‌ترتیب برابر 0.57 و 0.67) تأیید می‌شود. نتایج پیش‌بینی مدل‌های اقلیمی حاکی از افزایش تکرار بارش‌های شدیدتر و کاهش وقایع بارش با شدت کم در دوره‌ی آینده نسبت به گذشته و همچنین افزایش دمای حداقل و حداکثر در حوضه می‌باشد. این تغییرات منجر به افزایش سالانه‌ی رواناب و آب آبی ناشی از افزایش وقایع حدی و پتانسیل سیل‌خیزی حوضه و همچنین افزایش جریان آب سبز ناشی از افزایش دما و بارش در دوره‌ی آینده می‌شود. یافته‌های این تحقیق می‌تواند برای مدیران و سیاستگذاران منابع آب جهت ارائه‌ی برنامه‌ها و راهکارهای مدیریتی در مواجه با تغییرات اقلیمی مفید باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of Climate Change Impacts Using Fifth Assessment Report Models under RCP Scenarios on Water Resources in the Upper Basin of Salman Farsi Dam

نویسندگان [English]

  • Delaram Houshmand Kouchi 1
  • kazem Esmaili 2
  • Alireza Faridhosseini 3
  • Seyed Hossein Sanaei Nejad 3
  • davar khalili 4
1 Department of Water Engineering, agriculture faculty, Ferdowsi university of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 water science and engineering. ferdowsi university of mashhad- mashhad -Iran
3 Department of water engineering, agriculture faculty, Ferdowsi university of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 Water Engineering department, Shiraz university, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

This research aims to assess the potential impacts of climate change on water resource in the headwater basin of Salman Farsi dam in Fars province using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Climate projections from three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during future period (2020-2050) were incorporated into the calibrated SWAT model and changes in simulated runoff, blue water, green water flow, and green water storage were compared to the baseline period (1978-2008). SWAT model efficiency in simulating hydrological response of the basin was confirmed by performance evaluation indices in Tang-e-Karzin hydrometric station which is located at the outlet of basin in the calibration (NSE=0.77, R2=0.80) and validation (NSE=0.57, R2=0.67) periods. The GCMs projections indicate increasing the frequency of severe precipitation events and reducing precipitation events with low intensity in the future as compared to the baseline period, and also increasing the minimum and maximum temperature in the basin. These changes lead to an annual increase in runoff and blue water due to increase in extreme events and flood producing potential of the basin, as well as an annual increase in green water flow due to increase in temperature and precipitation over future.The findings of this research can be helpful for water resource managers and policymakers to provide management plans and strategies to encountering climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Blue water
  • general circulation model
  • Green water
  • Hydrological simulation
  • SWAT
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