Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage

Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage

Prioritization of the CMIP6 general circulation models using multi-criteria decision-making methods in the Nekarood watershed

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Pooria Moghadas 1
Emad Mahjoobi 2
Saeid Gharechelou 3
1 M.Sc. Student in Water Resource Management and Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Surveying, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran
Abstract
Due to the diversity and multiplicity of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM), it is not possible to use all of them in the estimation of climatic parameters. Undoubtedly, using the right model in climate simulations can improve the accuracy and certainty of the modeling. In this study, ACCESS-ESM1-5, GFDL-CM4, IITM-ESM, INM-CM4-8, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2 and MRI-ESM2-0 from the CMIP6 was evaluated in Nekarood river basin by applying multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches including compromise programming (CP), cooperative game theory (CGT), the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and weighted average technique (WAT). Then the final ranks were determined based on the group decision making method (GDM). To check the quality of the estimated rainfall of GCMs in accordance with the observed rainfall, correlation coefficient (CC), normalized root mean square deviation (NRMSD), average absolute relative deviation (AARD), absolute normalized mean bias deviation (ANMBD) and skill score (SS) were used. The weight effect of the evaluation indices in each of the MCDMs was determined by the entropy technique. The results indicate that the CC has the highest effect in the ranking process of GCMs with a weighted importance of about 45%. Finally, the GFDL-CM4 with a net strength of 18 in the group decision-making method was recognized as the most appropriate GCM, simulating precipitation for this watershed.
Keywords
Compromise Programming
Cooperative Game Theory
General Circulation Model
TOPSIS
Weighted Average Technique
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Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage
Volume 18, Issue 1 - Serial Number 103
May and June 2024
Pages 15-25