Investigating changes in the process of evaporation from the free water surface in the context of future climate change using the MLR-E_pan model (Case Study: Shahid Abbaspur Dam Reservoir)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Climatology, Yazd University

2 Professor of Climatology, Yazd University

3 Associate Professor of Climatology, Yazd University

Abstract

In this study, the future perspective of evaporation from the free water surface of Shahid Abbaspur dam reservoir was investigated using the multiple linear regression analysis of pan evaporation (MLR-Epan), the micro-scale atmospheric circulation model of LARS-WG6, and HadGEM2-ES model output, under RCPs emission scenarios for three time periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080. The results of the Mann-Kendall test from 2021 to 2080 showed that under the RCP2.6 scenario, the trend of annual changes in the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration of the Karun catchment basin was insignificant. However, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission patterns, the annual trend of the mentioned parameters increased significantly (α = 0.01). The accuracy of MLR-Epan in the base period was confirmed by the results of the hypotheses tests, so that 87% of the changes in evaporation from the pan was explained by the three variables of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and evapotranspiration. The findings showed that in the coming periods and based on all three radiative forcing patterns, the average annual surface evaporation from the Shahid Abbaspur dam reservoir will increase from 7.2 to 20.2 percent compared to the observation period. In the next sixty-year period (2021-2080) under the RCP2.6 scenario, the annual evaporation from the free water surface will be on the raise, but the increasing trend is not significant. Nevertheless, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the increasing trend is estimated to be significance (α = 0.01). Based on Sen's Slope estimator, the amount of evaporation from the reservoir surface is predicted to be 1.4, 19.1, and 31.9 mm, respectively, in the next 60-year period and under the investigated scenarios. Consequently, according to the future climatic conditions, it is necessary to reduce evaporation losses in dam reservoirs with proper planning and informed decisions.

Keywords

References

آقاشاهی، م.، اردستانی، م.، نیک سخن، م.ح. و طهماسبی، ب. 1391. معرفی و مقایسه مدل‌های LARS-WG و SDSM به‌منظور ریزمقیاس سازی پارامترهای زیست‌محیطی در مطالعات تغییر اقلیم. ششمین همایش ملی و نمایشگاه تخصصی مهندسی محیط‌زیست، تهران.
ابراهیمی، ح.، بزی، حسین. و امین نژاد، ب. 1400. اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تغییرات تبخیر از سطح چاه نیمه‌های سیستان. نشریه علوم و تکنولوژی محیط‌زیست. 23 (12): 135-121.
ابراهیمی، ح. و یزدانی، و. 1392. محاسبه تبخیر-تعرق فضای سبز به روش سبال (مطالعه موردی: پارک ملت مشهد). نشریه پژوهش‌های حفاظت آب‌وخاک. 20 (3): 151-133.
بابائیان، ا.، کریمیان، م.، مدیریان، ر.، فلامرزی، ی. و کوهی، م. 1400. پیش‌نگری بارش و دمای شرق کشور با استفاده از مقیاس کاهی ترکیبی دینامیکی-آماری. فصل‌نامه پژوهش‌های تغییرات آب و هوایی. 5 (5): 58-41.
باب الحکمی، ع.، غلامی، م.ع. و عمادی، ع.ر. 1399. اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تبخیر-تعرق مرجع در استان مازندران. مجله تحقیقات آب‌وخاک ایران. 51 (2): 401-388.
جهانبخش اصل، س.، خورشیددوست، ع.م. و عالی نژاد، م.ح. 1400. بررسی تغییرات دما و بارش حوضه سیمره با استفاده از مدل‌های اقلیمی سری CMIP5. نشریه تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی. 8 (3): 32-17.
رحیمی، د. و زارعی، ف. 1398. اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر حجم منابع آب و انتقال آب بین حوضه‌ای. نشریه علوم مهندسی و آبیاری. 42 (3). 74-61.
سایت زیست آنلاین. 1401. https://www.zistonline.com/.
سیدکابلی، ح. 1395. تصویرسازی دمای هوا و تبخیر از مخازن آب در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آتی (مطالعه موردی: سد دز). نشریه پژوهش آب ایران. 10 (23): 110-101.
شرکت سهامی مدیریت منابع آب ایران، دفتر بهره‌برداری و نگهداری از سدها. 1392. . /http://dams.wrm.ir
صفوی، ح. ر. 1393. هیدرولوژی مهندسی. انتشارات ارکان دانش. چاپ چهارم. اصفهان.
عابدی کوپایی. ج و مظاهری، ا. 1395. ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر دما و تبخیر از مخازن آزاد در اصفهان. دومین کنگره ملی آبیاری و زهکشی ایران، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان.
عساکره، ح. 1390. مبانی اقلیم‌شناسی آماری، انتشارات دانشگاه زنجان.
علیزاده، ا. 1387. هیدرولوژی کاربردی، انتشارات دانشگاه امام رضا (ع)، مشهد.
گرجی زاده، ع. 1393. تعیین عدم قطعیت میزان تبخیر از مخازن سدهای بزرگ در دوره‌های آتی تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم. پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی علوم آب، دانشگاه شهید چمران.
Balan, B., Mohaghegh, S. and Ameri, S. 1995. State- of- Art- in permeability determination from well log data: Part 1- A comparative study. Model development. SPE. 30978:17-25.
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Hinton, T., Jones, C. D., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O’Connor, F., Rae, J. and Senior, C. 2008. Evaluation of the HadGEM2 model. Hadley Cent. Tech. Note, 74.
Craig, L., Green, A., Scobie, M. and Schmidt, E. 2005. Controlling Evaporation Loss from Water Storages. Echnical Report. University of Southern Queensland, National Centre for Engineering in Agriculture, Toowoomba, Australia.
Dankers, R. and Christensen, O. B. 2005. Climate change impact on snow coverage, evaporation and river discharge in the sub-arctic tana basin, northern Fennoscandia. 69: 367– 392.
Dimri, A.P., Kumar, D., Choudhary, A. and Maharana, P. 2018. Future changes over the Himalayas, Maximum and minimum temperature. Global and Planetary Change. 162: 212-234.
Gao, Y., Long, D. and Li, Z. 2008. Estimation of daily evapotranspiration from remotely sensed data under complex terrain over the upper Chao river basin in north China. International Journal of Remote Sensing. 29 (11): 3295-3315.
Gianniou, S.K. and Antonopoulos, V.Z.  2007. Evaporation and energy budget in Lake Vegoritis, Greece. Journal of Hydrology. (345): 212-223.
Gocic, M. and Trajkovic, S. 2013. Analysis Mann-Kendall and of changes in meteorological variables usin Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change. 100: 172–182.
Hargreaves, G.H. and Samani, Z. 1985. Reference crop evapotranspiration from ambient air tempraturer. Meeting American Society of Agricultural Engineers, Chicago. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. 1(2): 96-99.
Helfer, F., Lemckert, C. and Zhang, H. 2012. Impacts of climate change on temperature and evaporation from a large reservoir in Australia. Journal of Hydrology. 365–378.
Irmak, S., Haman, D. and Jones, J. 2002. Evaluation of class A pan coeffcients for estimating reference evapotranspiration in humid location. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. 128(3): 153-159.
Johnson, F. and Sharma, A. 2010. A comparison of Australian open water body evaporation trends for current and future climates estimated from class a evaporation pans and general circulation models. Journal of Hydrometeorolgy. 11: 105-121.
Johns, T.C., Durman, C.F., Banks, H.T., Roberts, M.J., McLaren, A.J., Ridley, J.K., Senior, C.A., Williams, K.D., Jones, A., Rickard, G.J. and Cusack, S. 2006. The new Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM1): Evaluation of coupled simulations. Journal of Climate. 19(7): 1327-1353.
Kling, H., Fuchs, M. and Paulin, M. 2012. Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. J. Hydrol. 424: 264–27.
Ma, Lili., Yun Wu, J. J. and Chaoxing, H.e. 2011. The prediction model for soil water evaporation based on BP neural network, Conference on Intelligent Computation Technology and Automation (ICICTA), International. 2: 276-280.
Minville, M., Brissette, F. and Leconte, R. 2008. Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the
hydrology of a Nordic watershed. Journal of Hydrology. 358 (1-2):70– 83.
Racsko, P., Szeidl, L. and Semenov, MA. 1991. Serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecol Model. 57: 27–41.
Salmi, T., Määttä, A., Anttila, P., Ruoho-Airola, T. and Amnell, T. 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates the Excel template application MAKESENS. Finnish Meteorological Institut. DOI: 10.4236/jmp.2012.38101.
Semenov, M.A. and Barrow, EM. 1997. Use ofa stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change. 35: 397-414.
Semenov, M.A. and Stratonovich, P. 2010. The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate model for impact assessment of climate change. Clim. Res. 41:1-14.
Sen, P.K. 1968. Estimates of the Regression Coefficient Based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 63: 1379-1389.
Sima, S., Ahmadalipour, A. and Tajrishy, M. 2013. Mapping surface temperature in a hyper-saline lake and investigating the effect of temperature distribution on the lake evaporation. Remote Sensing of Environment. 136, 374-385.
Zhang, X., Vincent, L.A., Hogg, W.D. and Niitsoo, A. 2000. Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere – Ocean. 38(3): 395-429.
Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage
Volume 16, Issue 6 - Serial Number 96
March and April 2023
Pages 1082-1097

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics