Effects of Climate Changes on Inflow of Reservoires in the Uncertainty Condition (Case Study: Bostan and Golestan Dams in the Gorganroud Catchment)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, Ferdowsi University., Mashhad., Iran

2 Associate professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Ferdowsi University., Mashhad., Iran

3 Associate professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz., Tabriz., Iran

Abstract

Todays, with population increases and technology advances, excessive use of fossil fuels has increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Increased concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere, lead to an increase in average temperature and consequently the climate change. Also, the climate change can affect the rainfall and runoff. With attention to limited water resources in Iran, the study of this impact is very important for water resources management. In this study, the effects of climate change on Gorganroud river runoff to the Boustan and Golestan reservoirs located in Golestan province of Iran is studied. The minimum temperatures, maximum temperature, hours of sunshine and precipitation are downscaled with LARS-WG model for the period of 2015 to 2040 and under different emission scenarios. The results show about 20 – 25% decrease in rainfall and an increase of about 1 - 2 centigrade degrees in annual temperature. To investigate the effect of these changes on the river runoff, Artificial Neural Network is used to model the relation between rainfall and runoff. And the amount of runoff between years 2015 to 2040 is predicted. The results show a reduction in runoff about 18% in inflo to the Boustan reservoir and 24% in inflo to the Golestan resrevoir catchment in next years. These results represents that the basin needs adapataion and mitigation policies for effective water resourecs management.

Keywords

References

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Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 50
May and June 2015
Pages 367-380

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