Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage

Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage

Investigating the impact of climate change on the production of agricultural products in Iran (Case study: Wheat)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Zohreh Alimohammadi 1
Mohammad Ali Asaadi 1
Sadegh Khalilian 2
1 tarbiat modares university
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University
Abstract
Climate change is one of the fundamental and growing challenges in the 21st century, which has far-reaching consequences for economic and environmental activities, especially in the agricultural sector. Wheat, as one of the strategic products in the Iranian household food basket, is more exposed to climate change-induced damage than other products. The aim of this study is to analyze the climate effects on wheat production in Iran using the autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) model and time series data for the period 2000 to 2023.. The results of the model estimation showed that the variables of crop area and rainfall in the short and long term had a positive and significant effect on wheat production in Iran during the study period. This finding emphasizes that increasing crop area and rainfall play an important role in improving wheat production. On the other hand, the average temperature in both the short and long term periods had a negative and significant effect on the production of this product, which indicates the adverse effect of increasing temperature on wheat growth and production. The SPI drought index also showed that it did not have a significant effect on wheat production in the short term, but its effect was negative and significant in the long term. In addition, changes in seasonal patterns had a positive and significant effect on production in the short term, but this effect was not significant in the long term. These results indicate the complex and multidimensional effects of climate change on wheat production. Based on the research findings, the use of heat and drought-resistant varieties and the application of a crop calendar compatible with seasonal changes, as a basic recommendation, can help reduce the vulnerability of wheat production to climate fluctuations.
Keywords
Food security
Climate change
Drought
ARDL model
Wheat
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Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage
Volume 19, Issue 6 - Serial Number 115
March and April 2026
Pages 994-1003