Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage

Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage

Climate Change Risk Assessment Using the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and Multi-Dimensional Impact Analysis: A Case Study of Khorasan Province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Mojtaba Goldani 1
Abbas Ali Ghezelsofloo 2
Marzieh Mohammady Aria 3
1 Master of Environmental Engineering, Astan Quds Razavi Consulting Engineers Company, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor at Department of Civil engineering, Islamic Azad university, Mashhad Branch, Iran
3 PhD, Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
10.22034/idj.2025.547722.2632
Abstract
This study analyzes climate change risks in the arid and semi-arid regions of Khorasan Province, Iran. Initially, seven key climate risks were identified, including drought and water scarcity, flash floods, heatwaves, dust storms, desertification, soil and water salinity, and energy imbalance. Next, using the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and the expert opinions of 28 specialists collected in the spring and summer of 2025, the weights and priorities of each risk were determined. Subsequently, the impacts of each risk were evaluated across six dimensions: economic, social, environmental, infrastructural, agriculture and livestock, and health. The weighting results indicated that drought and water scarcity hold the highest priority with a weight of 0.295, followed by energy imbalance with a weight of 0.166. Heatwaves and soil salinity also emerged as significantly important, indicating increasing threats. Composite score analysis across various dimensions demonstrated that drought and energy imbalance exert the greatest impact on regional vulnerability. Additionally, notable correlations among risks such as heatwaves and soil salinity underscore the necessity of integrated and multisectoral risk management approaches. Ultimately, findings suggest that adaptation policies should prioritize the optimal management of water and energy resources, enhancement of infrastructure resilience, and restoration of ecosystems, while also emphasizing the critical role of social participation and education to reduce vulnerability and enhance preparedness. This research provides a comprehensive and localized framework for decision-makers and introduces energy imbalance as a key risk, offering novel insights for sustainable energy policies.
Keywords
Best–Worst Method (BWM)
Climate change risks
drought and water scarcity
energy imbalance
multidimensional impact assessment
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Iranian Journal of Irrigation & Drainage
Volume 20, Issue 2 - Serial Number 117
July and August 2026
Pages 189-207