عنوان مقاله [English]
Systems monitoring and mitigation measures defined in the main component of drought management plan and link between these two can be a timely and effective implementation of program management in relief operations to help. This study is an attempt to design such a system with the use of a probabilistic approach. In this approach, drought alert thresholds based on reservoir storage volume and the probabilities are defined. A simplified model of the water resources system is built to assess the threshold values and the management rules. short term simulations are carried out using the software package WEAP. Threshold values are identified considering the probability to assure a given fraction of the demand in a certain time horizon. The results of reservoir-deficit/risk curves in the study area showed, Alert levels Can be considered Between the curve risk 25% and deficit 15% and the curve risk 70% and deficit 30%. Also the reservoir-deficit/risk curves show that in each month of the year, for volume of 108 million cubic meters, deficit greater than or equal to 654 million cubic meters until the next year will occur.