نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد سازههای آبی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
2 علوم ومهندسی آب- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد- مشهد - ایران
3 دانشیار گروه علوم ومهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد
عنوان مقاله [English]
Many disasters such as flood, drought and changes in meteorological parameters are threating our planet, which mostly caused by climate change and global warming. By monitoring and accurate prediction of climatic and hydrological variables, these are the effective ways to make strategic decision. By studying the most effective meteorological parameters on river flow, besides, studying the changes in river flow for Kashafroud basin by monitoring and predicting hydrological drought (for time period of 2018-2047); it was tried to display a picture of changes for future condition of basin. In this study, for estimating the effective parameters on river flow for annual time scale, two synoptic datasets (Mashhad and Golmakan) and two hydrometric station datasets (Oulang and Moushang) for time period of 1987 to 2014, were used. In Mashhad synoptic station (upstream), the most effective parameters in significant level of 5%, maximum temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours were calculated. In Golmakan synoptic station, which is almost located in downstream, the precipitation and sunshine hours that is effective parameters on flow, were calculated as well. For the base time period, for both Mashhad and Golmakan synoptic stations, 2001 and 2008 were the driest years. By using LARS-WG with HadCM3 model and A2 scenario, future metrological parameters were simulated. The results showed that in upcoming years, for Mashhad synoptic station, significant flow will be occurred in comparison with the base flow for last 30 years; such that the maximum flow rate of 5.5 cubic meters per second will be expected for future Mashhad synoptic station. Conversely, the flow reduction and hydrological drought in comparison with the base flow, were observed.