عنوان مقاله [English]
Marand plain is one of the most important agricultural regions in East Azarbaijan province, which groundwater resources were applied more than 80% the water requirements of agricultural productions in this plain. Continuous consumption of groundwater caused a significant decline since 1982. Therefore, optimal and sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources is a management necessity in this plain. Consequently, modeling and prediction of the exploitation process could be accomplished by an appropriate technique. This study was conducted with the objective of analyzing the groundwater level variations in Marand plain with time series statistical models due to the ability of time series techniques to model and predict the behavior of temporal variation in water engineering phenomenon. Moreover, the groundwater level decline was modeled for 45 years with 14 methods of time series in this study. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was recognized as the most appropriate pattern. Modeling, testing and prediction were as follows: 25 years of the data for modeling (from 1982 to 2006), 10 years of data for the test (from 2006 to 2017) and future 10 years (from 2017 to 2027) was used for prediction of ground water. Results showed that the average decline of groundwater from 1982 up to now was 17 m. For optimal management of groundwater application, different saving scenarios including 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 percent savings starting from 2018 were considered. In the tenth year, about 67 ×106 m3 of groundwater will be saved with savings of only 10% from 2018. The land leveling, crop with low water requirements, deficit irrigation and irrigation scheduling could be applied to save groundwater in the north of Urmia Lake.