نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آّب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی)ره(، قزوین، ایران.
2 گروه مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی(ره)
3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین،
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Agricultural production vulnerable to damage due to climate changes. Effect of these changes on the annual rainfull, temperature and consequently in agricultural production isn't negligible. It is necessary to estimate climate change in the future and management plantation and irrigation in agriculture in line with it. In this study, the effects of climate change and plantation on different dates, Yield, cultivation period autumn wheat types in Qazvin plain were studied. This study was conducted in the period 2021-2100 by comparing the two information sources LARS-WG and DKRZ in the production of annual climate change data and using the AquaCrop model in simulating the plant's response to the mentioned changes. In the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100, the most suitable dates were studied to increase the wheat yield and reduce other variables. Accoding to the results obtainded from the climate conditions LARs-WG model and DKRZ database under release scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 in each 4 future period the average yield will increase compared to the base period. The highest performance in all these periods and models is for period 2081-20100 under climate conditions DKRZ database in scenario 8/5, in the event that the planting date is Novmber 6 , it is prediction that its amount is equal to 11.71 tons per hectare with standard deviation of 0.64 tons per hectare. The lowest performance is also for the period of 2041-2060 under climate condition DKRZ database in scenario 8.5, in the event that the planting data was October 7, It is reported that its amount is equal to 1.34 tons per hectare with standard deviation of 1.15. In the periods of 2021-2040, 2041-2060and 2061-2080 of February 4 and in the period 2081-2100 of October 23 is recommended as the most appropriate date in these periods.
کلیدواژهها [English]