نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران

نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران

پایش و پیش‌بینی خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص خشکسالی هواشناسی SPI براساس گزارش ششم IPCC (مطالعه موردی شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکدگان علوم و فناوری‌های میان‌رشته‌ای ، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
2 گروه انرژی‌های نو و محیط زیست دانشکده علوم و فنون نوین دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
امروزه تغییراقلیم یکی از چالش‌های مهم زیست‌محیطی در قرن 21 شناخته می‌شود گرمایش زمین هم‌‌زمان با کاهش در میزان بارش اثرات تغییراقلیم را شدیدتر کرده است. هدف از انجام این مطالعه پایش و پیش‌بینی خشکسالی با استفاده از شاخص خشکسالی هواشناسی SPI براساس گزارش ششم IPCC می‌باشد. برای انجام پژوهش، برونداد 11 مدل از مدل‌های GCM در دوره پایه (2014-1994) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده‌کاوی توسط نرم‌افزار CMhyd صورت گرفت. به منظور ارزیابی دقت مدل‌های CMIP6 در مقایسه با داده‌های مشاهداتی از معیارهای آماریMSE ، RMSE، MAE و R2 و برای اعتبارسنجی و تصمیم‌گیری در انتخاب مدل از سنجه‌های نش-ساتکلیف و گلینگ گوپتا بهره گرفته شد. پیش‌بینی آینده با استفاده از سناریوهایSSP1-2.6 ، SSP2-4.5، SSP3-7.0 و SSP5-8.5 در بازه زمانی (2043-2023) صورت گرفت. در نهایت 3 مدل EC-Earth3، EC-Earth3-Veg و GFDL-ESM4 به عنوان مدل برتر شناسایی شدند. که بالاترین هم‌پوشانی را با داده‌های مشاهداتی تهران داشتند. برای پیش‌بینی خشکسالی آینده از شاخصSPI بهره گرفته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد در سال‌های آتی به‌جز برخی سال‌ها، بارش‌ها افزایش چشم‌گیری نخواهند داشت. نتایج پیش‌بینی براساس مدل EC-Earth3-Veg در تمام سناریو افزایش بارش در ژانویه (دی) و کاهش بارش‌ها در دسامبر ( آذر) و براساس مدلGFDL-ESM4 افزایش بارش در فوریه (بهمن) براساس سناریوی SSP1-2.6 و کاهش بارش در می (اردیبهشت) براساس تمام سناریوها و افزایش بارش در دسامبر (آذر) براساس تمام سناریوها رخ خواهد داد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Drought monitoring and prediction using drought metorlogical index SPI on the sixth report of IPCC (Case study: Tehran city)

نویسندگان English

Razieh Mousavi Hesari 1
Mohammad Hossein Jahangir 2
1 Interdisciplinary College of sciences and technologies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 University of Tehran
چکیده English

One of the most pressing issues of twenty first century is the climate change. Global warming coincided with the decrease in precipitation, intensified the effects of climate change. The purpose of this study is to investigate and forecast the drought in Terhran for the next 20 years. To do this study, the output of eleven models from General Circulation Model (G.C.M.) in the basic period (1994-2014) was examined. Data mining was done through CMHyd application. The statistical indices of MSE, RMSE, MAE, R2 were used to assess the accuracy of CMIP6 models in comparison with observational data. To verify the validity and making decision to select a model, Nash-Sutcliffe and Kling-Gupta efficiency tests were exploited. Then, the forecast for the future time frame (2023-2043) were made by employing SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. At last, three models of EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, and GFDL-ESM4 were recognized as the best models. These models overlapped with Tehran observational data to the highest degree. The future SPI index results indicated that the drought will have a growing trend and wet year will have a mild one without any significant increase.The prediction results according to the release scenarios showed: according to the EC-Earth3-Veg model, in all scenario, there will be a rise in precipitation in January and a decrease in December , and according to the GFDL-ESM4 model, there will be an increase in precipitation in February based on the SSP1-2.6 scenario and we will have a decrease in precipitation in May as per scenarios and an increase in precipitation in December based on all scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Climate Changes
CMhyd Software
Meteorological Drought Index SPI
Scenarios SSP
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