نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران

نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران

تحلیل رفتار تغییرات توزیع تبخیر از تشت در ایستگاه هواشناسی خرم آباد

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه لرستان
2 دانشیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران.
چکیده
تبخیر به عنوان یکی از اجزای کلیدی چرخه هیدرولوژیک، نقش تعیین‌کننده‌ای در توازن آبی مناطق مختلف ایفا می‌کند. مطالعه تغییرات تبخیر از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است زیرا بر مدیریت منابع آب، کشاورزی و آبیاری تاثیر مستقیم دارد. در این مطالعه به تحلیل روند تغییرات تبخیر از تشت در مقیاس‌های مختلف از حیث تغییرات آماری پرداخته و رفتار این متغیر را در دوره آماری 1402-1371 در ایستگاه خرم آباد بررسی کرده است. نتایج بررسی روند تغییرات زمانی نشان داد که تغییرات مقادیر تبخیر از تشت در اکثر ماه‌ها کاهشی و غیرمعنی‌دار بوده است. اما این تغییرات با توجه به آزمون پتیت دارای زمان تغییر روند معنی‌دار می‌باشد که بین سال‎های 1379 تا 1382 در مقیاس سالانه و ماهانه رخ داده است. شناسایی نقاط شکست در سری‌های زمانی تغییرات تبخیر از تشت، تحولات ساختاری در توزیع این متغیر را آشکار کرد. ایستایی در داده‌های روزانه تبخیر از تشت تایید و در مقیاس ماهانه و سالانه رد شد. نتایج بررسی توزیع‌های منتخب در قبل و بعد از زمان تغییر روند نشان داد که توزیع داده‌ها پس از نقطه شکست به سمت مدل‌های آماری با چولگی مثبت و دنباله سنگین مانند Gpareto تغییر یافت که احتمالاً ناشی از تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی و افزایش مقادیر حدی تبخیر است. نتایج نشان داد که در تحلیل‌های آینده، توجه همزمان به روندهای خطی، نقاط شکست و تغییرات توزیع‌های آماری ضروری است. چنین تحلیلی می‌تواند به درک بهتر رفتار تبخیر در شرایط تغییر اقلیم و مدیریت بهینه منابع آب کمک کند.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of the behavior of pan evaporation distribution changes at Khorramabad meteorological station

نویسندگان English

Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi 1
Aliheidar Nasrolahi 2
1 Department of Water Engineering, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran.
چکیده English

Evaporation plays a critical role in the water balance of different regions as a fundamental part of the hydrological cycle. Studying evaporation trends is of particular importance due to its direct impact on water resource management, agriculture, and irrigation. This study analyzes the trend of pan evaporation changes at different time scales from a statistical perspective, examining the behavior of this variable over the 1992–2023 period at the Khorramabad station. The results of the temporal trend analysis revealed that pan evaporation exhibited a decreasing (though statistically insignificant) trend in most months. However, based on the Pettitt test, a significant trend change point was identified, occurring between 2000 and 2003 at both annual and monthly scales. The detection of breakpoints in the time series of pan evaporation revealed structural shifts in the distribution of this variable. While stationarity was confirmed for daily pan evaporation data, it was rejected for monthly and annual scales. The analysis of selected distributions before and after the trend change point showed that post-breakpoint, the data distribution shifted toward heavy-tailed and positively skewed statistical models such as the Generalized Pareto (Gpareto), likely due to climatic changes and increased extreme evaporation values. The findings highlight the necessity of simultaneously considering linear trends, breakpoints, and changes in statistical distributions in future analyses. Such an approach can enhance our understanding of evaporation behavior under climate change and support optimal water resource management.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Breakpoint Detection
Stationarity
Pettitt Test
Skewness
Statistical Distribution
 
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