نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران

نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران

ارزیابی ریسک‌های اقلیمی با رویکرد تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره (BWM) و تحلیل اثرات در ابعاد عملکردی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 کارشناس ارشد عمران محیط‌زیست، شرکت مهندسان مشاور معماری و شهرسازی آستان قدس رضوی، مشهد، ایران
2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی مشهد، مشهد، ایران
3 دکتری علوم خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران
چکیده
این مطالعه به تحلیل ریسک‌های تغییر اقلیم در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک استان خراسان، ایران، می‌پردازد. در ابتدا، هفت ریسک اصلی اقلیمی شامل خشکسالی و کمبود آب، سیلاب‌های ناگهانی، موج‌های گرما، طوفان‌های گردوغبار، بیابان‌زایی، شور شدن خاک و آب، و ناترازی انرژی شناسایی شدند. سپس، با استفاده از روش تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره بهترین - بدترین (BWM) و نظر 28 کارشناس در بهار و تابستان 1404، وزن و اولویت هر یک از این ریسک‌ها تعیین گردید. در مرحله بعد، پیامدهای هر ریسک در شش بُعد عملکردی شامل اقتصادی، اجتماعی، محیط زیستی، زیرساختی، کشاورزی و دامپروری و سلامت ارزیابی شد. نتایج وزن‌دهی نشان داد که خشکسالی و کمبود آب با وزن 295/0 بالاترین اولویت را داراست و ناترازی انرژی با وزن166/0 دومین ریسک مهم شناخته شد. موج گرما و شورشدن خاک نیز اهمیت قابل توجهی دارند و تهدیدهای رو به افزایشی را نشان می‌دهند. تحلیل نمرات ترکیبی در ابعاد مختلف نشان داد که خشکسالی و ناترازی انرژی بیشترین تأثیر را بر آسیب‌پذیری منطقه دارند. همچنین، وجود همبستگی‌های قابل توجه میان ریسک‌هایی مانند موج گرما و شورشدن خاک بر ضرورت مدیریت یکپارچه و چندبخشی تأکید می‌کند. در نهایت، یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که سیاست‌های سازگاری باید بر مدیریت بهینه منابع آب و انرژی، افزایش تاب‌آوری زیرساخت‌ها و احیای اکوسیستم‌ها تمرکز داشته باشند و مشارکت اجتماعی و آموزش نیز برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری و افزایش آمادگی ضروری است. این پژوهش چارچوبی جامع و بومی برای تصمیم‌گیرندگان فراهم کرده و با معرفی ناترازی انرژی به‌عنوان ریسک کلیدی، بینش‌های نوینی برای سیاست‌های پایدار انرژی ارائه می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Climate Change Risk Assessment Using the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and Multi-Dimensional Impact Analysis: A Case Study of Khorasan Province

نویسندگان English

Mojtaba Goldani 1
Abbas Ali Ghezelsofloo 2
Marzieh Mohammady Aria 3
1 Master of Environmental Engineering, Astan Quds Razavi Consulting Engineers Company, Mashhad, Iran
2 Associate Professor at Department of Civil engineering, Islamic Azad university, Mashhad Branch, Iran
3 PhD, Department of Soil Science, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده English

This study analyzes climate change risks in the arid and semi-arid regions of Khorasan Province, Iran. Initially, seven key climate risks were identified, including drought and water scarcity, flash floods, heatwaves, dust storms, desertification, soil and water salinity, and energy imbalance. Next, using the Best-Worst Method (BWM) and the expert opinions of 28 specialists collected in the spring and summer of 2025, the weights and priorities of each risk were determined. Subsequently, the impacts of each risk were evaluated across six dimensions: economic, social, environmental, infrastructural, agriculture and livestock, and health. The weighting results indicated that drought and water scarcity hold the highest priority with a weight of 0.295, followed by energy imbalance with a weight of 0.166. Heatwaves and soil salinity also emerged as significantly important, indicating increasing threats. Composite score analysis across various dimensions demonstrated that drought and energy imbalance exert the greatest impact on regional vulnerability. Additionally, notable correlations among risks such as heatwaves and soil salinity underscore the necessity of integrated and multisectoral risk management approaches. Ultimately, findings suggest that adaptation policies should prioritize the optimal management of water and energy resources, enhancement of infrastructure resilience, and restoration of ecosystems, while also emphasizing the critical role of social participation and education to reduce vulnerability and enhance preparedness. This research provides a comprehensive and localized framework for decision-makers and introduces energy imbalance as a key risk, offering novel insights for sustainable energy policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Best–Worst Method (BWM)
Climate change risks
drought and water scarcity
energy imbalance
multidimensional impact assessment
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