ارزیابی محصول ماهواره‎ای CHIRPS در بررسی روند تغییر بارش‎های جنوب شرق ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اکولوژی، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، پژوهشگاه علوم و تکنولوژی پیشرفته و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته،

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد هواشناسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 دانشکده مهندسی عمران ومحیط‌زیست، دانشگاه بویزی آمریکا

چکیده

کاهش قابل ملاحظه حجم آب دو تالاب مهم هامون و جازموریان در منطقه خشک جنوب شرق کشور تبعات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیط‎زیستی متعددی را به دنبال داشته است. با اینکه کاهش آب این دو تالاب تحت تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و انسانی است، اما اغلب تغییرات اقلیمی به ویژه کاهش بارش به عنوان عامل اصلی در نظر گرفته می‎شود. بنابراین در این مطالعه، روند تغییرات بارش در منطقه جنوب شرق کشور با استفاده از محصول ماهواره‎ای CHIRPS مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. برای ارزیابی دقت CHIRPS در مقایسه با داده‎های بارش ایستگاه‎ها ازشاخص‎های طبقه بندی آماری شامل احتمال آشکارسازی (POD)، نرخ هشدار اشتباه (FAR) و شاخص آستانه موفقیت (CSI) و معیارهای خطاسنجی شامل ضریب تبیین (R2)، ضریب همبستگی پیرسون (PCC)، جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و میانگین خطاها (ME) در سه مقیاس زمانی روزانه، ماهانه و سالانه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که این محصول در ردیابی تعداد روزهای بارانی و غیربارانی از دقت مناسبی برخوردار نیست (POD و CSI کمتر از 2/0 و FAR بیشتر از 6/0). این محصول تخمین دقیقی از بارش روزانه ارائه نمی‎کند (R2 کمتر از 2/0 و PCC کمتر از 4/0)، اما در مقیاس ماهانه و سالانه از دقت نسبتا مناسبی برخوردار است (R2 بیشتر از 6/0 و PCC بیشتر از 8/0). بررسی روند بارش در منطقه جنوب شرق کشور نشان داد که به طور کلی مقدار بارش در مقیاس ماهانه، فصلی و سالانه در 40 سال گذشته افزایشی بوده است و یا در صورت کاهشی بودن، کاهش آن معنی دار نبوده است. بر این اساس کاهش سطح آب تالاب‎ها نمی‎تواند تنها ناشی از تغییرات بارش باشد و باید نقش سایر عوامل و به‎ویژه فعالیت‎های انسانی را نیز در نظر گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of CHIRPS Satellite Product for Trend Analysis of Precipitation in the Southeast of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ameneh Mianabadi 1
  • Khosro Salari 2
  • Yavar Pourmohamad 3
1 Department of Ecology, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Sciences, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
2 MSc in Agrometeorology, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Faculty of Civil Engineering and Environment, Boise state university, USA
چکیده [English]

The significant reduction in water volume of the two important wetlands of Hamoun and Jazmourian in the arid region of the southeast of the country has had several economic, social, and environmental consequences. Although the reduction of water in these two wetlands is influenced by climatic and human factors, often climate change, especially the decrease in rainfall is considered as the main factor. Therefore, in this study, the trend of precipitation changes in the southeastern region of the country is investigated using the CHIRPS satellite product. To evaluate the accuracy of CHIRPS compared to station precipitation data, the Categorical Statistical Indices including Probability of Detection (POD), False Alarm ratio (FAR) and Critical Success Index (CSI) and statistical criteria including coefficient of determination (R2), Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) were used in three time scales: daily, monthly and annual. The results showed that this product does not have good accuracy in detecting the number of rainy and non-rainy days (POD<0.2, CSI<0.2, FAR>0.6). This product does not provide an accurate estimate of daily precipitation (R2<0.2 and PCC<0.4), but has relatively good accuracy on a monthly and annual scale (R2>0.6 and PCC>0.8). The trend analysis of precipitation in the southeastern region of the country showed that in general, the amount of precipitation on a monthly, seasonal and annual scale has been increasing, or in some cases insignificant decreasing, during the last 40 years. Accordingly, the decrease in the water level of wetlands cannot be due only to changes in rainfall, and the role of other factors, especially human activities should be considered.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Change
  • Drought
  • Precipitation
  • CHIRPS

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نشریه آبیاری و زهکشی ایران
دوره 16، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 93
مرداد و شهریور 1401
صفحه 670-684

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